Can Russia come out of this war without any loss of land?

The invasion of Ukraine was supposed to give Putin control over Ukraine and ultimately more land, but the longer the war continues the only prospect that seems to be emerging is one of losing land and even a break-up of the Russian Federation.  This may seem far-fetched from the outside, but the Russian empire was expanded through strength and that strength is quickly evaporating. 

The longer Putin remains in power and engaged in war against Ukraine, Russia will continue to go backwards in every sphere of social, economic and technological life.  Prior to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918 Germany considered plans to separate Russia into four separate states in order to suppress it as a military threat.  Whether some of those ideas could resurface is not clear but the difference these days is that China would want a say and would probably the greatest beneficary.   

Should such a break-up occur, there are many questions over petrochemical assets, under what country they would trade under and who would actually control these assets? 

US intelligence last year identified two Russian regions which are being monitored by China, one in the Amur Oblast and the other Vladivostok.  These two regions were once part of China’s Qing Empire. In the 19th century, the Qing dynasty handed them over to the Russian Empire.  There are no existing chemical plants operating in these areas but there are two huge projects close to completion, including the Nakhodka Mineral Fertiliser Plant and the Amur Gas Chemical Complex.   

This is purely speculative at this stage but with Putin cornered, unable to win the war and facing political suicide through retreat, the prospects for Russia are simply bleak.  Future historians will quite possibly see Putin as the man who destroyed Russia.

Data Section

Russian Petrochemical Production